The Swans are within touching distance of an unlikely grand final spot while the Dockers have their campaign for a first premiership back on track
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Sydney’s season was meant to be dead and buried by now. The club-imposed suspension of five players for breaching club standards was thought to have weakened the side to such an extent that a straight-sets finals exit was all but guaranteed. But while the spotlight was on the absent players, a galvanised group of those who remained – one still sprinkled with stardust – dialled up the heat to stun Brisbane and surge into a home preliminary final.
The emotion-charged triumph made the Swans the 13th team to win a qualifying final by more than 50 points since 2000. Eleven of the previous 12 teams then earned a spot in the decider. But for all of their newfound momentum, Dean Cox’s side have to overcome the loss of another pivotal player after captain Callum Mills sustained a serious knee injury against the Lions. The Swans have turned doubters into believers with the way their players have stepped up in the face of adversity. But it would be another chapter in a story for the ages if they can beat the minor premiers to reach a third grand final in five seasons.
Fremantle are taking a longer route than hoped towards the club’s second men’s decider with an away preliminary final. But the Dockers showed they have a steel to them as they fought off a serious challenge from the battle-hardened Cats to bounce back in a high calibre semi-final. Justin Longmuir’s side can take confidence from a decent record at the SCG with two wins in their past three games at the venue while going down by under two goals in their most recent visit last year. The minor premiers can also turn to slamming on 100 points in a half when they overran the Swans in round 18 to claim a statement win in the top-of-the-ladder clash.
Where the game will be won – and lost
Sydney are without their skipper on Thursday, three of their biggest stars and a couple of role players for the rest of the season. But they still have the forward firepower that was enough to blow away the back-to-back premiers. The Swans had the leading attack for points scored through the home-and-away campaign and loaded up with another 141 points – their highest score ever in a final – as they crushed the Lions. They only needed six goalscorers to pile on 21 majors as Logan McDonald (six), Charlie Curnow (five), Tom Papley (five) and Hayden McLean (three) all enjoyed a day out in a warning to the Dockers of the spread of weapons they need to contain.
The Swans have become renowned for their run-and-gun gameplan. But they have quietly been building a brand for the added intensity of finals as the top side for scores from clearance with a 14-0 record when they outscore the opposition from the source. Cox’s side dominated scoring from stoppage in their qualifying final as they restricted the Lions to their equal season-low of one goal from the source, while exploding out of the middle themselves for 39 points from centre clearances.
Fremantle showed they can be just as damaging at scoring from centre clearance as they booted 45 points from the source in their semi-final against Geelong. Shai Bolton was the early beneficiary as the Dockers twice stormed out of the middle for the livewire to boot the opening two goals of the game. But there will be concern that they also gave up 36 points to the Cats from the same source. Versatile big man Luke Jackson could be the key to the stoppage battle after he had a game-high eight clearances against the Cats. But the onball brigade of Hayden Young, Caleb Serong, Andrew Brayshaw, Murphy Reid and Bolton will test the Swans’ depth.
The Dockers will be relieved their three-pronged tall forward set-up fired in their second final after Josh Treacy, Jye Amiss and Patrick Voss combined for two goals in the loss to the Hawks. The trio bounced back to share seven goals against that Cats as Voss led the way with four, and their ability to take marks inside 50 will be important to setting up their own opportunities as well as taking away the Swans’ rebound.
Game-changers
Errol Gulden: The Swans’ hard-running midfielder shouldered the load in the absence of five banned teammates in the stirring win over the Lions. The academy graduate has averaged 39 disposals, seven clearances and nine score involvements across his past six matches as he hits peak form at just the right time. The 24-year-old would have been closely considered to be stand-in skipper in place of Mills before former co-captain Dane Rampe received the nod. Gulden’s leadership can come out in other ways as he showed in response to the Lions’ inevitable surge, when he pulled off an incredible solo goal with a burst from the middle that ended with a snap to reclaim momentum for his side. The Swans might be lacking some star power but in Gulden they have a midfielder who can inspire the side like few others.
Shai Bolton: The Dockers’ dynamo set the tone for his side’s emphatic response to their qualifying final horror show as he booted the opening two goals within as many minutes of the first ball-up against the Cats. The two-time All Australian finished with 26 disposals, four clearances and eight tackles as he adds more strings to his bow as a high-impact onballer. The 27-year-old’s link-up play helps the Dockers turn defence into attack while he remains a danger in the forward half where his pace and clever positioning helps him to average a goal a game. Bolton can expect to have James Rowbottom for company whenever he steps into the engine room, after the Swans’ tackling machine locked down on Lachie Neale in the qualifying final.
Early prediction
Fremantle showed they can rise to the occasion with just their second finals victory since 2015 in a classic contest against Geelong. Sydney have proven they can win with their backs to the wall but, with the element of surprise now gone in how they want to play finals and their captain’s injury adding to their concerns, a clash with the minor premiers looks a step too far for the undermanned side.
