Deputy premier says he told leader of his intention on Monday after Allan refused request to stand down

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Victoria’s deputy premier, Ben Carroll, has confirmed he will nominate for the leadership of the Labor party, after a group of MPs told Jacinta Allan she no longer had the support of caucus.

The cross-factional group of ministers and MPs met the premier before Monday’s scheduled cabinet meeting, to tell her she had lost the majority of support and urged her to stand down, just four months before the state election.

In a statement released after that meeting, Carroll said he told the premier that he would nominate for the leadership, setting up the possibility of a spill to take place on Tuesday.

“A group of my colleagues have approached me today, to inform me that Jacinta Allan no longer has the support of our Caucus and have asked me to nominate for the leadership of the Victorian Parliamentary Labor Party,” Carroll said in a statement on X.

“It is clear that the Premier has lost the majority of our Caucus. As such, I have since visited the Premier to inform her that I will be nominating for the leadership of the Labor Party.”

Carroll said the decision was “not easy” but the “stakes at the upcoming election are simply too high”.

The group that met with Allan on Monday morning included MPs from the premier’s own socialist left faction, including ministers Ingrid Stitt and Gabrielle Williams, and MP Mathew Hilakari, as well as right-aligned frontbenchers Anthony Carbines and Lizzie Blandthorn.

According to sources close to the premier, Allan refused their request to stand down and instead asked the ministers at the meeting to resign, given they had lost faith in her leadership. But they also refused.

The MPs had hoped Allan would step down before a potential leadership vote at Tuesday’s caucus meeting and allow Carroll to run unopposed.

But in a letter to the Victorian Labor state secretary, Steve Staikos, Allan indicated she will contest a leadership ballot – which would trigger a weeks-long process where both the parliamentary caucus and rank-and-file Labor members will vote.

The process, introduced after the instability of the Rudd-Gillard-Rudd era, is untested, but would see a leader elected based off 50% of MPs votes and 50% party members.

“I refer to media speculation regarding the leadership of the Victorian Parliamentary Labor Party and am writing to request that you ensure that the Victorian Labor Party is prepared to conduct an election for the leadership of the State Parliamentary Labor Party in the event an election is required,” Allan says in the letter, seen by Guardian Australia.

“I would also like to formally notify you of my intention to be a candidate for the leadership of the Victorian Parliamentary Labor Party in the event that an election is required.”

A party spokesperson said no public comments would be made on the matter “at this time”.

One minister told Guardian Australia that Allan was “not going anywhere”.

Another said not all parliamentarians within the left faction were consulted before Sunday’s meeting and that there was “no uniform position” within the grouping.

“There is no vacancy, no challenger and no consolidated position within the left,” the minister said. “It’s just one big smoke machine.”

The attorney general, Sonya Kilkenny, a key supporter of the premier, said leadership speculation was “idle gossip” on Sunday.

“She has my full support, and this idle gossip doesn’t help Victorians,” Kilkenny said. “It is only hurting Victorians at a time when Victorians need us all to be focused on them.”

Allan became premier after the resignation of Daniel Andrews in September 2023.

Momentum has been building for a leadership spill due to poor polling and Allan’s weak personal approval ratings, rising support for One Nation and concerns about her response to organised crime infiltrating the state’s Big Build, via the construction union.

Allan, who previously served as the minister for transport infrastructure overseeing the Big Build, has rejected growing calls for a royal commission.

Carroll had previously ruled out a challenge at a press conference on 15 June, where he looked Allan in the eye and declared he would not challenge her for the leadership. He told reporters: “I’ve got a young daughter at home, and I couldn’t be more proud to make sure she grows up knowing that I supported Jacinta Allan to be a world-class premier and get re-elected in her own right.”

It is understood Carroll, if elected leader, would call for a royal commission, work to resolve the pay dispute between the government and public school teachers, and attempt to improve the party’s economic credentials and standing with the business community.