Tourists return to England having won just two of their last 13 Test series amid rapidly changing personnel

Last Friday was a glorious anniversary for Pakistani cricket, 10 years on from a 10-wicket win against England at the Oval. Younis Khan, their greatest run-scorer, hit a double hundred. Yasir Shah, a magical leggie and Lionel Messi lookalike, took a five-fer. Misbah-ul-Haq, their 42-year-old captain, led his men on a victory lap in south London and would have the ultimate reward a few days later. His side, unable to play at home since 2009 because of an attack on Sri Lanka’s team bus, moved up to No 1 in the Test rankings for the first time.

There is a link to that golden period on their current tour of England. Sarfaraz Ahmed, their wicketkeeper back then, is now the Test head coach, but these are much darker times for the national team. Sarfaraz’s presence underlines the obscene volatility within Pakistani cricket, a never-ending search for new answers while results inevitably suffer. The number of head coaches/team directors Pakistan have had across formats since 2021 is into double figures, and there’s really no point trying to count how many selectors have had a go. Like Joe Root, Babar Azam is back for his second stint as Test captain, having replaced Shan Masood before last month’s tour of the Caribbean.

That tour did bring some relief for a unit who have won just two of their last 13 Test series and are second-last in the current World Test Championship after finishing bottom in the previous cycle. Victory in the second Test, on a turning pitch exploited by the off-spinner Sajid Khan, ended a run of eight consecutive defeats away from home. Babar – their finest batter, an aesthete who looked as if he was going to be the best on the planet a few years ago – was Pakistan’s player of the series with 193 runs, while Masood reached three figures in his first Test knock since losing the armband.

You could see a lineup forming to challenge England’s bowlers, yet the luck hasn’t gone Pakistan’s way. Masood broke a finger while making his century, feeling the wrath of Jayden Seales, while Babar took a blow to the right hand in their warm-up fixture at Beckenham last week, forcing him to retire hurt. After taking some throwdowns in the nets on Monday, Babar’s absence from the first Test was confirmed on Tuesday, with Salman Ali Agha to lead in his absence.

Mohammad Abbas

At least Masood will be around. The left-hander may be short on time in the middle but has been declared fit and knows these surroundings well having captained Yorkshire and done the rounds in county cricket with Leicestershire and Derbyshire, too. Although once an easy nab for Jimmy Anderson, who dismissed him for one on four occasions, he doesn’t have to worry about that any more. Abdullah Shafique, also a centurion in the Caribbean, has a technique to get the purists purring and Saud Shakeel is another with a Test average above 40. Both are untested in England at this level but there is pedigree in Pakistan’s batting order.

The worry is the lack of wizardry in that bowling lineup, one lacking in pace and without a world-beating spinner. The hope is that Mohammad Abbas, 36, can take in all the wisdom he has accrued in the County Championship and nibble the ball around with venom, even if it doesn’t reach 80mph. Abbas and England have been here before: he instigated Pakistan’s last Test victory in the country, his eight wickets at Lord’s in 2018 hurting a Root-led side on the mend from an Ashes mauling in the winter.

Naturally, the cliches will grow louder in the coming days. That Pakistan are forever mercurial, capable of beating anyone when the moment strikes, their bowlers turning electric as the fielders build a drumroll, hauling themselves to a logic-defining triumph.

The reality is that this is the perfect arrangement for Root and an England team short on wins, one on a new path after the fall of the previous regime. They should take the series. Pakistan may well manage one win but a retreat to the past – maybe to highlights from the Oval a decade ago – is a safer shot at happiness for their supporters this summer.