Good morning. This afternoon peers will debate the second reading of the representation of the people bill. If you hear a loud bang echo around the Lords chamber, it will be the sound of the stable door being shut after the horse has bolted.

At the end of 2024 the Sunday Times carried a report saying that Elon Musk was considering donating $100m to Reform UK. It made a good headline, but the idea seemed so preposterous that no one at Westminster really took it very seriously. Musk is not a British citizen, and so it would have been illegal for him to have given the money directly anyway; he would have had to have donated via UK companies.

Musk is now backing Restore Britain. But of course there are British billionaires who support Reform UK too. Some Labour MPs (including Andy Burnham himself, at one point) have always been in favour of capping the amount individuals can give to political parties, and there is a bill going through parliament on elections law that could be for legislation on this. But the main unions were not in favour, because they worried the law could be extended to outlaw union donations to the Labour party, and over the summer let it be known he was not in favour of a cap. As Kiran Stacey reported in his story at the time:

Those close to the process say capping donations is not a priority for Burnham and not a subject over which it would be worth triggering a fight with Labour’s biggest backers.

At that point, the idea that Reform UK might have received donations getting close to the $100m territory probably seemed a bit fanciful.

Not any longer.

The news that Reform UK has received £72m from Ben Delo and Christopher Harborne, two cryptocurrency billionaires, could have a transformative effect on British politics. It has certainly revived the debate about whether the government should legislate for a cap. Today union leaders are all at the TUC conference in Brighton, and peers are debating the representation of the people bill.

Reform UK insists it will be able to keep the money. “These two donations are entirely in line with the law as it is and, as far as we know, the law as it’s going to be in the future,” Robert Jenrick, the Reform UK Treasury spokesperson said yesterday.

But ministers are hinting that the party could be forced to pay the money back. In March this year (when Delo and Harborne were assumed to be living abroad) the government announced that Britons living abroad would only be able to donate £100,000 a year and that, although the law had yet to be passed, it would be apply retrospectively from the date of the announcement, 25 March.

What if donors scuttled back quickly? In July the government announced that there would be “a new timebound cap on large political donations from people who have recently moved to the UK, in effect creating a minimum amount of time someone must permanently be based in the country before they can donate over the cap to a political party or candidate”. This means Britons returning from abroad to live in the UK will have to have been here for at least a year before they are exempt from the £100,000 cap and able to donate as much as they want.

In interviews yesterday, Angela Rayner, the housing secretary, said these new laws – which are part of the representation of the people bill still going through parliament – would apply retrospectively. But she would not say directly whether that meant they would apply to the Delo and Harborne donations, and no one seems to know for sure. Partly that is because Reform UK has not said exactly when Delo and Harborne relocated to the UK, and partly it is because some of the details of the rule saying they will have to have been in the UK for a minimum period before they are exempt from the £100,000 donations cap are not yet available.

This has not stopped Reform UK accusing the government of using “dictatorship” tactics. This is what Richard Tice, the Reform UK deputy leader, told Times Radio this morning.

We’re completely confident that [the Delo and Harborne] donations comply with not only the existing rules, but they also comply with the rules currently going through parliament, albeit with that retrospective element … Unless [Labour] literally try and change the rules again as it’s going through the House of Lords, in which case it would have to go back to the Commons. I mean, anything’s possible with this sort of dictatorship currently ruining the country. You know, we’re the victims of a coup.

We’re completely confident that [the Delo and Harborne] donations comply with not only the existing rules, but they also comply with the rules currently going through parliament, albeit with that retrospective element …

Unless [Labour] literally try and change the rules again as it’s going through the House of Lords, in which case it would have to go back to the Commons. I mean, anything’s possible with this sort of dictatorship currently ruining the country. You know, we’re the victims of a coup.

Tice also accused the Labour of “hypocrisy”. He told ITV’s Good Morning Britain:

These donations are made in accordance with the rules and the regulations, and you’ve now got a hyperventilating hypocrisy from the socialists ruining this country, who are trying to change the rules retrospectively, which is it’s not the fair way, it’s not the British way, and I think most people will say ‘does that just mean that Labour are terrified of the progress of Reform and they’re trying to create an unlevel playing field?’

Given that it is thought Delo and Harborne were living abroad until fairly recently, it does look as though a retrospective law saying that it would be illegal for anyone to give more than £100,000 to a political party if, on 6 July, they had not been living in the UK for a certain period of time (perhaps a year?) would mean the party having to give it back.

But Reform UK may be gambing on the fact that a legal battle over this could take years. (Historically, the courts have taken a dim view of legislation that looks as if it penalises individuals.) In any legal battle, Reform UK could now easily outspend the Electoral Commission on KCs. And, if they were to win the next election, this would all become irrelevant anyway. There is no mechanism for re-running a general election if it later transpires it was won by a party breaking funding rules.

Here is the agenda for the day.

9.30am: The second day of the TUC conference starts in Brighton. Paul Nowak, the general secretary, is speaking at about 11am, and Angela Rayner, the housing secretary, speaks at about 3pm.

11am: John Swinney, the SNP Scottish first minister, Rhun ap Iorwerth, the Plaid Cymru Welsh first minister, and Michelle O’Neill, the Sinn Féin Northern Ireland first minister, hold a joint press conference in Cardiff where they are demanding their parliaments and assemblies have the right to hold referendums on leaving the UK.

11.30am: Downing Street holds a lobby briefing.

After 3pm: Peers debate the second reading of the representation of the people bill.

Afternoon: Andy Burnham is holding a roundtable meeting with business leaders in Downing Street, ahead of holding a larger reception for CEOs.

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