F&O Talk: Nifty to remain rangebound, says Sudeep Shah; picks 8 stocks for next week

F&O Talk: Nifty to remain rangebound, says Sudeep Shah; picks 8 stocks for next week ETMarkets.com Analyst Sudeep Shah, Vice President and Head of Technical & Derivatives Research at SBI Securities, interacted with ETMarkets regarding the outlook for the Nifty and Bank Nifty.

Synopsis Indian stock markets concluded the week with modest gains, as Sensex and Nifty erased earlier surges on monthly expiry day.

Analysts observe Nifty's consolidation, with key support at 23,750-23,800 and resistance at 24,250-24,300.

Bank Nifty shows outperformance, eyeing 58,800 for further upside.

Derivatives data suggests improving sentiment, with FIIs reducing bearish bets.

Sectors like Private Banks, Auto, and Pharma appear strong.

By Veer Sharma, ETMarkets.com XPeers Spicejet Share Price InterGlobe Aviation Share Price TAAL Tech Share Price Global Vectra Helicorp Share Price Last Updated: Jun 27, 2026, 10:23:00 AM IST Follow us Indian stock market closed in the green, with Sensex and Nifty ending the session with marginal gains after erasing most of the intraday gains amid Sensex monthly expiry day.ADVERTISEMENT Sensex gained over 109 points to close at 77,100.47 while Nifty 50 rose over 34 points to end the session at 24,056.

This came after the benchmark indices soared more than 1% in the afternoon, before erasing gainsAnalyst Sudeep Shah, Vice President and Head of Technical & Derivatives Research at SBI Securities, interacted with ETMarkets regarding the outlook for the Nifty and Bank Nifty, as well as an index strategy for the upcoming week.

The following are the edited excerpts from his chat: Sensex, Nifty were up 1% this week.

Given the holiday shortened week, how are charts looking for Monday?

In the truncated trading week, the benchmark index Nifty witnessed heightened volatility, testing both ends of its ongoing consolidation range.

However, it failed to register a decisive breakout or breakdown, resulting in the formation of a High Wave candle for the second consecutive week.

This reflects the prevailing indecisiveness among market participants.

Despite the lack of directional conviction, the index managed to end the week with marginal gains.

From a technical perspective, the index continues to trade above its 20-day and 50-day EMA, indicating that the broader short-term trend remains positive.

However, momentum indicators and oscillators continue to suggest a lack of directional strength.

The daily RSI is moving sideways, while the MACD histogram indicates fading bullish momentum.

Additionally, the ADX has slipped to 15.27 and has been declining over the past few trading sessions, highlighting the absence of a strong trend.

So, what does the current technical setup suggest about the index's next decisive move?The prevailing chart structure indicates that the index is likely to remain range-bound over the next couple of trading sessions.

On the upside, the 24,250–24,300 zone will act as an immediate hurdle.

A decisive and sustainable move above 24,300 could trigger the next leg of the rally towards 24,500, followed by 24,700 in the short term.

However, this bullish setup remains valid only if one crucial support zone continues to hold firm.ADVERTISEMENT On the downside, the 23,800–23,750 zone is expected to provide strong support, as it coincides with the 20-day EMA and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent upmove.

A breach below this zone could weaken the short-term structure and pave the way for further correction.

With the index nearing a critical inflection point, the price action around these key levels is likely to determine the market's next meaningful directional move.

What is your view on the Nifty Bank Index?

The banking benchmark index, Bank Nifty, has been outperforming the broader market over the past couple of weeks.

In the previous week, the index witnessed a breakout from a 7-day consolidation phase.

Momentum indicators and oscillators also point towards strength, with the daily RSI and Stochastic oscillators positioned firmly in bullish territory.ADVERTISEMENT ADVERTISEMENT Going forward, the 58,700–58,800 zone is likely to act as an immediate resistance.

A sustained move above 58,800 could trigger a sharp rally towards 59,500, followed by 60,200 in the near term.

On the downside, the 57,500–57,400 zone is expected to provide strong support for the index.

What do the latest F&O indicators, including open interest and put-call ratio (PCR) trends, suggest about the market's near-term direction?

The derivatives data continues to point towards a gradual improvement in market sentiment, although there is still limited evidence of aggressive bullish positioning.ADVERTISEMENT Between June 15 and June 25, Nifty advanced 0.78%, while open interest in index futures declined by 1.25%.

During the same period, the FII long-short ratio increased from 12.70% to 15.70%, and net index futures shorts reduced from 2,41,241 contracts to 2,23,809 contracts.The divergence between rising prices and declining open interest suggests that the recent upmove has been driven largely by short covering rather than fresh long build-up.

The steady rise in the FII long-short ratio and reduction in net short positions indicate that foreign investors have been gradually unwinding bearish bets, though the pace of covering remains measured rather than aggressive.Options data also reflects a constructive undertone.

The Put-Call Ratio (PCR) has largely remained above the 1 mark during this period, signalling stronger put writing activity compared to call writing.

Although the sharp decline of more than 1% in Nifty on June 23 caused the PCR to slip to 0.78, the subsequent rebound saw it recover sharply to 1.21 before moderating to 1.02 on June 25.ADVERTISEMENT The PCR sustaining above 1 despite Nifty consolidating within a narrow range over the last nine sessions suggests that traders continue to maintain a positive bias and are willing to write puts at lower levels.

This indicates confidence that key support zones are likely to hold.Which sectors are showing the strongest technical setup, and where are traders building fresh long positions?

Technically, Nifty Private Bank, Financial Services, Auto, Pharma, Healthcare, and India Tourism are expected to continue their outperformance in the near term, supported by favourable price structure and momentum.

What should be the trading strategy for IndiGo and SpiceJet after Thursday's strong momentum?

What are the technical charts indicating?

Additionally, after this week's rally in Nifty IT stocks, what is the likely outlook for the sector?

IndiGo continues to display strong bullish momentum after breaking out of a symmetrical triangle pattern on the daily chart on June 12.

The stock has witnessed a sharp follow-through rally since the breakout, reaffirming the validity of the pattern and the strength of the underlying trend.Technically, the stock is trading comfortably above its key short-term and long-term moving averages, highlighting a well-established uptrend.

Trend strength is also improving, with the ADX rising steadily and approaching its previous peak.

The DI+ remains above the DI−, indicating clear bullish dominance.

Adding to the positive outlook, the MACD histogram continues to expand in the positive territory, reflecting strengthening upward momentum.Overall, the technical setup remains constructive and suggests the potential for further upside in the near term.In contrast, SPICEJET continues to exhibit a relatively weak technical structure.

Although the stock witnessed a pullback rally on June 25, it still trades below its key moving averages on the weekly chart, indicating that the broader trend remains unfavorable.Moreover, the ADX remains largely flat, suggesting an absence of strong trend strength.

Unless the stock manages to decisively move above the 15.5–16 zone, the technical outlook is likely to remain sideways to bearish.

Any short-term bounce may therefore be viewed as a relief rally rather than the beginning of a sustainable uptrend.Despite the recovery seen in IT stocks this week, the broader technical setup for the Nifty IT Index remains weak.

The index continues to trade below its key moving averages on both the daily and weekly timeframe, indicating that the primary trend is still under pressure.From a relative strength perspective, the index remains positioned in the lagging quadrant of the RRG (Relative Rotation Graph), reflecting weak relative performance and subdued momentum compared to the broader market.

Additionally, the MACD remains below both the zero line and the signal line, highlighting the absence of strong directional momentum.While intermittent pullbacks and short-covering rallies cannot be ruled out, a meaningful trend reversal is unlikely unless the index decisively reclaims the 28200–28300 zone.

Until then, the broader technical bias is expected to remain cautious, with rallies likely to face selling pressure at higher levels.

With crude prices falling sharply and global risk sentiment improving, how are institutional traders positioning themselves in the derivatives market?

However, over the last nine trading sessions, the index has largely remained range-bound within a 477-point band.

Despite multiple attempts, Nifty has failed to decisively close above its 100-day EMA, highlighting the significance of this resistance zone.During such periods of consolidation, derivative data becomes particularly important as institutional participants often build positions quietly before a directional breakout.

Between June 15 and June 25, while Nifty gained a modest 0.78%, open interest declined by 1.25%.

Simultaneously, the FII long-short ratio improved from 12.70% to 15.70%, while net index futures shorts reduced from 2,41,241 contracts to 2,23,809 contracts.This combination of rising prices and falling open interest suggests short covering rather than fresh long additions.

The improvement in the long-short ratio from 12.70% to 15.70% further indicates that FIIs have been gradually reducing their bearish bets, even though the pace of short covering has not been aggressive.The cash market data also supports this view.

FIIs were net buyers to the tune of ₹1,309 crore during the same period, reflecting a modest improvement in risk appetite.From a technical standpoint, the setup continues to favour the bulls.

The DI+ has crossed above DI- on the ADX indicator, signalling strengthening positive momentum, while the MACD remains above the zero line, indicating that the broader trend bias remains positive.

Importantly, there is little evidence of fresh short positions being built in the market at current levels.

What are stocks that are looking good on the charts for next week?

Based on the current chart structure and technical setup, stocks such as CG Power, M&M, Maruti Suzuki, Shriram Finance, M&M Finance, TVS Motors, and JB Chem Pharma are showing encouraging signs.