We assess the standing of the players on the shortlist for the award before the winner is announced in October

1) Harry Kane (England/Bayern Munich)

Even adjusting for the goal-drunken Bundesliga, his 61 goals in 51 matches for Bayern last season undersells his all-around impact, considering his playmaking and hold-up skills. Kane was gameplanned out of England’s later games at the World Cup, but he was unstoppable through the last-16 to close out the finest year of his career to date. If not now, when?

2) Rodri (Spain/Manchester City – now at Barcelona)

He boasts a comparable case to when he won this prize in 2024 – Rodri remains the epicenter of an incredibly effective Spanish collective. This time around, there’s no Premier League glory to bolster his hopes, as City’s late challenge fizzled out with the club “only” winning domestic cups in his final season at the Etihad. Back to his best en route to Spain’s second World Cup title, though only one of the four previous World Cup champions had the corresponding Ballon d’Or winner (Lionel Messi, 2023).

3) Kylian Mbappé (France/Real Madrid)

Mbappé and José Mourinho have launched an aggressive campaign for the Frenchman to win his first Ballon d’Or. He was even more difficult to slow in his second Spanish season, with 40 goals in 42 matches across La Liga and the Champions League; the less said about his pressing, the better. Few players captivated and dominated like Mbappé at the World Cup, as he won the Golden Boot. But a lack of team accomplishments could set back his candidacy, made even more glaring given Madrid’s chronic success.

4) Lamine Yamal (Spain/Barcelona)

Another member of the World Cup champions, although injuries limited his impact in North America – the master of suspense was not as involved as he’d have liked. Then again, he managed greater consistency in his third season as a regular for Barcelona, with 41 goal contributions in all competitions across 45 appearances. He only just turned 19 in July.

5) Lionel Messi (Argentina/Inter Miami)

Messi could well have ranked higher if Argentina had won the World Cup this summer, as the 39-year-old was the heart and soul of their campaign. Alas, a putrid final showing (by his teammates, more than Messi) dulls the sheen on his hopes for a ninth Ballon d’Or, and he is also hit by the fact that he doesn’t play for one of Europe’s elite clubs, even though Inter Miami won the MLS title. His remarkable 17th appearance on a Ballon d’Or shortlist is well deserved.

6) Michael Olise (France/Bayern Munich)

Who knew Bayern’s most thrilling attack in recent memory would be spearheaded by signings from Tottenham and Crystal Palace? An elite secondary attacker, and one who has come to relish operating as the string-puller in transition and at the edge of the final third. Spain masterfully closed his passing lines and took him out of the semi-final, but a pair of assists in the third-place match left him tops in that category at the World Cup. A career year, or evidence he’s set a new standard for himself?

7) Erling Haaland (Norway/Manchester City)

Even as City stumbled down the stretch, this was another season to pad his growing legacy as one of the game’s great strikers of any era. He made the most of Norway’s return to the World Cup, finishing as the tournament’s joint-third top goalscorer (seven) despite exiting in the quarter-final.

8) Jude Bellingham (England/Real Madrid)

A man for the biggest moments, Birmingham City’s decision to retire his number when his career had barely started has aged well. He forged a rare tandem with Kane at the World Cup, alternating headline hero shifts en route to another semi-final heartbreaker. His goals and assists plummeted in his third season with Madrid, though most of his teammates saw diminishing returns in a forgettable campaign.

9) Ousmane Dembélé (France/Paris Saint-Germain)

Lacking some of the bombast that typifies his rivals, Dembélé remains a silky threat for club and country. His stats for PSG dipped from last year’s award-winning campaign, from 35 goals in 53 games to 20 in 40. His partnership with Mbappé and Olise for France was as dangerous as the international game has seen. If nothing else, Dembélé has made certain that he is no one-year wonder.

10) Khvicha Kvaratskhelia (Georgia/Paris Saint-Germain)

On a per-minute basis, few players are more effective in the biggest games. Unfortunately, his club’s domestic dominance means he can take more shifts off than most of his gilded peers, logging a measly 1,479 Ligue 1 minutes in 28 appearances. Georgia’s absence from this summer’s World Cup also limits the evidence available to bolster his case. Nonetheless, his barnstorming exploits in the Champions League knockouts saw the 25-year-old hit rare form.

11) Declan Rice (England/Arsenal)

The most vital cog in Mikel Arteta’s meticulous machine, and a key all-around impact in England’s run to the semi-final, even if he at times understandably looked tired after a long domestic campaign.

12) Bruno Fernandes (Portugal/Manchester United)

One of a few Portuguese players whose cases for this prize were scuppered by this summer’s underwhelming showing under the stubborn Roberto Martínez. Truly sensational to restore the Red Devils to prouder days.

13) Pau Cubarsí (Spain/Barcelona)

Looked every part the lead center-back that his club and country need to play in a possession-dominant way. Then again, these prizes seldom skew towards defenders.

14) Fabián Ruiz (Spain/Paris Saint-Germain)

Success in the Champions League and World Cup has seen this fine facilitator get his due at age 30.

15) Vitinha (Portugal/Paris Saint-Germain)

Involved in PSG’s best stuff no matter the competition, with six of his seven club goals coming in the Champions League last season. Unable to shed the stench of Portugal’s World Cup, but he is the world’s finest deep-lying playmaker all the same.

16) Luis Díaz (Colombia/Bayern Munich)

Took to Germany with glee, bagging 26 goals and 19 assists in 51 appearances dwarfed his output at Liverpool. Struggled for most of the World Cup, however, as Colombia crashed out sooner than expected.

Always close to any fracas, Gabriel was steady as ever as Arsenal enjoyed a long-awaited Premier League title. Some great summer showings at the World Cup, especially against Japan, but struggled – like the rest of his team – against Norway.

18) Nuno Mendes (Portugal/Paris Saint-Germain)

Few opponents have found how to best neutralize Mendes, save for hoping that PSG give him another domestic day off between Champions League games.

19) Lautaro Martínez (Argentina/Inter)

Another dependable goalscoring campaign in Italy, and excelled in a super-sub role during Argentina’s knockout run. One of this era’s great strikers, and already off to a hot start this season.

20) William Saliba (France/Arsenal)

Especially steady in the Premier League and Champions League, helping Arsenal to their most successful year in decades. His injury hurt France’s chances against Spain in the World Cup semi-final, perhaps bolstering his reputation in absentia.

And the rest of the field …

21) Achraf Hakimi (Morocco/Paris Saint-Germain)

22) Vinícius Júnior (Brazil/Real Madrid)

23) Dayot Upamecano (France/Bayern Munich)

24) Marc Cucurella (Spain/Chelsea – now at Real Madrid)

25) João Neves (Portugal/Paris Saint-Germain)

26) Willian Pacho (Ecuador/Paris Saint-Germain)

27) Ferran Torres (Spain/Barcelona – now at Paris Saint-Germain)

28) Marquinhos (Brazil/Paris Saint-Germain)

29) Julián Quiñones (Mexico/Al Qadsiah)

30) Sadio Mané (Senegal/Al Nassr)