Illustration: Guardian Design/Getty Images/AFP/REX/Shutterstock Illustration: Guardian Design/Getty Images/AFP/REX/Shutterstock Will John Healey’s ‘breathing space’ budget deliver what Britain needs?
Our panel responds Polly Toynbee, Hettie O'Brien, Rohan Sathyamoorthy, Kevin Cashman, Nik and John McDonnell Amid global economic storms, the new chancellor has promised to steer the course – with promises of more help to come.
Will it be enough?
‘Growth in every postcode’?
Not yet, but hope at last Polly Toynbee Guardian columnist First, he did no harm.
Then he scattered sprinkles of feel-goods.
He told the truth about the state we’re in, deep in an extra £14bn of expensive debt, and, though he put it politely, at the mercy of the monster in the White House’s whims on Iran and tariffs.
The losers were popular targets: the banks and gambling companies.
But plainly bank threats to decamp partly paid off.
Their shares leapt up on the news that their surcharge would rise to only 6%, not its original 8% before Tory reductions.
They expected to pay more, and indeed they should.
Gambling company shares jumped up too, with Rank up more than 10% on the day when the companies were only hit with five percentage points more tax on high-stakes machines, a missed chance, but better than nothing.
The Treasury makes £4bn from gambling.
Time to ban their advertising next.
The chancellor gave a gracious nod to his predecessor.
He should be grateful, as she took the pain and he takes the gain for her £66.6bn in tax rises, in NI for employers and frozen income tax thresholds that slide by unseen, but yield mightily until 2031.
The public expected more personal taxes, according to Ipsos.
It didn’t happen.
Labour can take comfort that they think the Conservatives and Reform would both raise tax and cut public services.
Instead, help comes for their energy costs, one of the greatest causes of household debt, with bills set to rise brutally in January.
Homes in council tax bands A-D get £100 and the VAT reduction has been extended until July, while abolished standing charges leave 60% of homes better off.
But the rumbling discontent that has upended our politics since Brexit is easily explained by the unprecedented long fall in median household income, only in the last year rising back to levels six years ago.
Yet people’s priorities remain perverse: immigration stays top of their concerns, above inflation and the economy.
Spending more on tougher border controls is second only to the NHS as the most popular expenditure.
What do you do?
Give in and let Shabana Mahmood be her harshest – or start telling people about the trade-off?
Visas for work for another 200,000 migrants would bring the Treasury £18bn, says the Office for Budget Responsibility.
Think what people could have for that.
Is this the “growth in every postcode and hope in every heart” Andy Burnham promises?
No, not yet, not yet … Wait for his 10-year plan, spending review and an election with a new manifesto.
And hope.